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{"id":1045,"date":"2014-07-15T11:05:56","date_gmt":"2014-07-15T11:05:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stockmarket.what-todo.com\/stockmarket\/?page_id=1045"},"modified":"2022-05-02T11:01:34","modified_gmt":"2022-05-02T11:01:34","slug":"vix-fear-index-lesson-4","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"http:\/\/stockmarket.what-todo.com\/stockmarket\/?page_id=1045","title":{"rendered":"VIX – Fear index"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

VIX<\/b>\u00a0is\u00a0a popular measure of the\u00a0implied volatility\u00a0of\u00a0S&P 500 index\u00a0options. Often referred to as the\u00a0fear index<\/i>\u00a0<\/strong>or the\u00a0fear gauge<\/i>, it represents one measure of\u00a0the market’s expectation of stock market\u00a0volatility\u00a0over the next 30 day period.Based on the history of index option prices, Prof. Whaley computed daily VIX levels in a data series commencing January 1986, available on the CBOE website. Prof. Whaley’s research for the CBOE appeared in the Journal of Derivatives.<\/p>\n

The VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized. “VIX” is a registered trademark of the\u00a0CBOE.<\/p>\n

The VIX is calculated as the\u00a0square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30 day term\u00a0initiated today. Note that the VIX is the volatility of $\"291px-VIX$ <\/a>a\u00a0variance swap\u00a0and not that of a\u00a0volatility swap\u00a0(volatility being the square root of variance, or\u00a0standard deviation). Avariance swap\u00a0can be perfectly statically replicated through vanilla puts and calls whereas a volatility swap requires dynamic hedging. The VIX is the square root of the risk-neutral expectation of the S&P 500 variance over the next 30 calendar days. The VIX is quoted as an annualized standard deviation.The VIX has replaced the older VXO as the preferred volatility index used by the media. VXO was a measure of implied volatility calculated using 30-day\u00a0S&P 100\u00a0index at-the-money options.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the next 30-day period, which is then annualized. For example, if the VIX is 15, this represents an expected annualized change of 15% over the next 30 days; thus one can infer that the index option markets expect the S&P 500 to move up or down 15%\/\u221a12<\/span>\u00a0= 4.33% over the next 30-day period.\u00a0That is, index options are priced with the assumption of a 68% likelihood (one standard deviation) that the magnitude of the change in the S&P 500 in 30-days will be less than 4.33% (up or down).<\/p>\n

The price of\u00a0call\u00a0and\u00a0put\u00a0options can be used to calculate implied volatility, because volatility is one of the factors used to calculate the value of these options. Higher (or lower) volatility of the underlying\u00a0security\u00a0makes an option more (or less) valuable, because there is a greater (or smaller) probability that the option will expire in the money (i.e., with a market value above zero). Thus, a higher option price implies greater volatility, other things being equal.<\/p>\n

To the next lesson – fundemental investing<\/a><\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
VIX\u00a0is\u00a0a popular measure of the\u00a0implied volatility\u00a0of\u00a0S&P 500 index\u00a0options. 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